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高盛:10年期美债收益率若升至4.5%,美股将大跌25%

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年05月23日 14:42:22
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同乐城娱乐|首页平台直属招商最高㊖100返9♔诚招代理【微信QQ同步】860925559 腾讯分分彩,腾讯5分彩,腾讯10分彩,时时彩龙虎和,U米彩票代理,U米官网,U米平台注册,U米乐官网,U米娱乐官方网站。高盛:10年期美债收益率若升至4.5%,美股将大跌25%
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  上)(周)(,高)(盛)(追)(随)(“新)(债)(王)(”冈)(拉)(克)((JeffreyGundlach)将)(2018年)(底)(10年)(期)(美)(债)(收)(益)(率)(预)(期)(从)(3%升)(至)(3.25%。高)(盛)(表)(示)(,“最)(近)(债)(券)(收)(益)(率)(的)(上)(升)(是)(由)(于)(两)(个)(原)(因)(被)(很)(好)(地)(吸)(收)(。第)(一)(,过)(去)(两)(个)(季)(度)(利)(率)(的)(上)(升)(主)(要)(反)(映)(了)(美)(国)(经)(济)(增)(长)(。其)(次)(,来)(自)(财)(政)(状)(况)(的)(总)(体)(增)(长)(推)(动)(依)(然)(是)(正)(面)(的)(,过)(去)(一)(年)(美)(国)(股)(价)(大)(涨)(、美)(元)(下)(跌)(。”
  
  在)(基)(准)(情)(形)(下)(,高)(盛)(预)(测)(,美)(国)(10年)(期)(国)(债)(利)(率)(今)(年)(年)(底)(将)(逐)(步)(上)(升)(至)(3.25%。但)(高)(盛)(也)(做)(了)(一)(个)(极)(端)(情)(境)(的)(压)(力)(测)(试)(,分)(析)(了)(今)(年)(年)(底)(若)(10年)(期)(债)(券)(收)(益)(率)(大)(幅)(上)(升)(至)(4.5%,将)(对)(美)(国)(经)(济)(和)(股)(市)(产)(生)(何)(种)(影)(响)(。
  美)(国)(经)(济)(将)(急)(剧)(放)(缓)(
  高)(盛)(的)(压)(力)(测)(试)(使)(用)(美)(联)(储)(FRB/US模)(型)(来)(模)(拟)(。模)(拟)(发)(现)(,如)(果)(2018年)(底)(10年)(期)(美)(债)(收)(益)(率)(升)(至)(4.5%时)(,美)(国)(经)(济)(将)(急)(剧)(放)(缓)(,但)(不)(会)(出)(现)(衰)(退)(,对)(2018年)(和)(2019年)(GDP增)(速)(的)(负)(面)(影)(响)(分)(别)(是)(减)(少)(0.5个)(百)(分)(点)(和)(1个)(百)(分)(点)(,GDP增)(速)(分)(别)(降)(至)(2.25%和)(1%。
  股)(市)(将)(大)(跌)(20%-25%
  金)(融)(博)(客)(零)(对)(冲)(表)(示)(,当)(市)(场)(“突)(然)(”意)(识)(到)(美)(联)(储)(将)(以)(更)(快)(速)(度)(收)(紧)(货)(币)(政)(策)(,将)(导)(致)(10年)(期)(美)(债)(收)(益)(率)(大)(幅)(上)(涨)(,引)(发)(债)(券)(市)(场)(大)(幅)(下)(挫)(。这)(将)(对)(股)(市)(造)(成)(严)(重)(冲)(击)(,并)(对)(美)(国)(经)(济)(产)(生)(影)(响)(,美)(国)(经)(济)(衰)(退)(或)(许)(可)(以)(避)(免)(,但)(市)(场)(崩)(盘)(将)(不)(可)(避)(免)(。
  另)(一)(方)(面)(,高)(盛)(也)(表)(示)(,若)(今)(年)(年)(底)(10年)(期)(美)(债)(收)(益)(率)(升)(至)(4.5%,股)(市)(将)(大)(跌)(20%-25%。
  债)(券)(收)(益)(率)(大)(幅)(飙)(升)(将)(压)(垮)(股)(市)(,抹)(去)(标)(普)(1/4的)(市)(值)(。高)(盛)(表)(示)(,“该)(模)(型)(暗)(示)(,我)(们)(的)(金)(融)(状)(况)(指)(数)(”(FinancialConditionsIndex)在)(顶)(点)(收)(紧)(至)(多)(200个)(基)(点)(,主)(要)(受)(到)(股)(价)(下)(跌)(20-25%的)(推)(动)(。”而)(这)(只)(是)(一)(个)(开)(始)(,因)(为)(“金)(融)(市)(场)(更)(夸)(张)(的)(反)(应)(或)(许)(会)(引)(发)(经)(济)(急)(剧)(放)(缓)(”。
  但)(高)(盛)(将)(债)(券)(收)(益)(率)(近)(期)(的)(上)(涨)(视)(为)(有)(利)(的)(,更)(多)(地)(反)(映)(了)(美)(国)(经)(济)(的)(增)(长)(,而)(不)(是)(对)(通)(胀)(的)(担)(忧)(。
  即)(便)(出)(现)(债)(券)(收)(益)(率)(大)(幅)(急)(剧)(走)(高)(的)(情)(况)(,也)(还)(是)(存)(在)(一)(些)(缓)(冲)(因)(素)(。首)(先)(,如)(果)(收)(益)(率)(增)(长)(速)(度)(超)(出)(预)(期)(,可)(能)(伴)(随)(着)(积)(极)(的)(增)(长)(消)(息)(,这)(可)(能)(会)(起)(到)(一)(定)(正)(面)(作)(用)(;其)(次)(,债)(券)(收)(益)(率)(向)(家)(庭)(和)(企)(业)(所)(面)(临)(的)(有)(效)(利)(率)(的)(传)(导)(过)(程)(可)(能)(相)(当)(缓)(慢)(;再)(次)(,较)(低)(的)(偿)(债)(比)(率)(为)(家)(庭)(和)(企)(业)(提)(供)(抵)(御)(收)(益)(率)(上)(升)(的)(坚)(实)(缓)(冲)(。
  最)(后)(高)(盛)(总)(结)(道)(,“如)(今)(,美)(国)(经)(济)(正)(从)(强)(劲)(的)(增)(长)(手)(头)(、全)(球)(经)(济)(的)(强)(劲)(增)(长)(及)(美)(国)(的)(财)(政)(刺)(激)(中)(受)(益)(,美)(国)(经)(济)(将)(可)(以)(经)(受)(住)(相)(当)(大)(的)(收)(益)(率)(上)(升)(的)(冲)(击)(,而)(不)(会)(陷)(入)(衰)(退)(。尽)(管)(债)(券)(持)(续)(抛)(售)(的)(总)(体)(影)(响)(可)(控)(,我)(们)(最)(后)(指)(出)(,几)(个)(重)(要)(的)(部)(门)(——包)(括)(房)(地)(产)(及)(商)(业)(活)(动)(收)(缩)(——可)(能)(会)(引)(发)(美)(国)(经)(济)(的)(急)(剧)(放)(缓)(。”
  高)(盛)(在)(文)(章)(最)(后)(也)(指)(出)(,如)(果)(10年)(期)(美)(债)(收)(益)(率)(再)(上)(升)(150个)(基)(点)(,市)(场)(将)(会)(崩)(盘)(,不)(过)(高)(盛)(仍)(然)(相)(信)(,尚)(不)(具)(备)(出)(现)(大)(幅)(抛)(售)(的)(情)(况)(。
  债)(券)(收)(益)(率)(走)(高)(之)(所)(以)(打)(压)(股)(市)(涨)(势)(,一)(方)(面)(因)(为)(企)(业)(借)(贷)(成)(本)(上)(升)(,从)(而)(伤)(害)(经)(济)(增)(长)(和)(企)(业)(盈)(利)(,打)(压)(股)(市)(估)(值)(。另)(一)(方)(面)(,固)(定)(资)(产)(收)(益)(率)(相)(对)(风)(险)(资)(产)(也)(更)(具)(吸)(引)(力)(。
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